April's inflationary pressure, which had previously concerned investors, is now showing signs of easing! According to multiple sources, the CPI for April is expected to drop from March’s 8.3% to around 8.1%, signaling a slowdown in inflation. On April 30, the last trading day before the May Day holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index surged by 4.82%, closing at 3,693, driven by the lower-than-expected CPI and increased new fund inflows. Chen Jijun, a macro analyst at CITIC Securities, noted that compared to the high inflation seen in February and March, April’s figures are expected to be lower, with overall inflationary pressures gradually easing. The main factor behind this decline was the drop in agricultural product prices. Although food prices remained high, vegetable prices fell sharply in the last two weeks of April due to an ample supply. Some vegetables even saw price drops of up to 50%. Zhang Jie, chief analyst at Hujie Investment, predicted that CPI could fall further to 7.9% in April, with inflation expected to decline in the coming months after reaching a peak of 8.7% in February. However, despite the easing of inflationary pressures, three key factors still pose challenges: rising international crude oil prices, continued high growth in the PPI (Producer Price Index), and core inflation slowly increasing. Additionally, food prices—especially rice—are beginning to rise again. Several agencies expect investment and exports to continue declining in April, while consumption will grow steadily. Professor Liu Yuanchun, vice president of the School of Finance at Renmin University of China, stated that while the economy slowed in the first quarter, the trend and extent of the decline need further observation. He emphasized that understanding the decline in aggregate demand will be crucial for shaping future policy decisions. Liu also pointed out that current inflation remains structural, primarily driven by rising food prices. “Regardless of whether we acknowledge it or not, people are becoming more tolerant of inflation,” he said. “As long as inflation remains stable, we should avoid addressing it by suppressing economic growth.” The government is shifting its focus toward a “new double defense” strategy—preventing both inflation and an economic downturn. While the traditional approach focused on avoiding overheating and structural price increases, economists now believe that the risk of overheating has eased, and the balance between growth and inflation needs careful management. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s macroeconomic early warning index for the first quarter stood at 113.3, indicating a “green light” zone and an overall stable economy. This contrasts with the “hot yellow zone” seen in late 2007. Zhu Hongren, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, noted that excessive investment, money supply, and trade surpluses have eased, and structural adjustments are progressing. Liu Yuanchun explained that the new policy tone reflects a shift from the old “double defense” to a balanced approach that aims to control inflation while also preventing an economic slowdown. He stressed that in a large country like China, maintaining high growth is essential to avoid social instability and rising unemployment. Chen Jijun added that with the expected decline in exports, it’s time to boost domestic demand to offset falling export performance. In response to the changing economic landscape, several institutions predict that interest rate hikes in May are unlikely. Morgan Stanley believes that the U.S. recession is helping to cool the Chinese economy without requiring drastic austerity measures. Domo maintains its stance that interest rates will remain unchanged in 2008. Analysts suggest that monetary policy will focus on adjusting deposit reserve ratios and open market operations rather than raising interest rates. Zhang Hao warned that continuing strict regulation could lead to economic risks, while liberalizing investment might push up PPI and eventually CPI. Zhang Jian proposed a multi-step approach, including resolving urban social security issues, establishing a rural social security system, and using strong fiscal revenues to ease public concerns and lay the foundation for increased consumer spending. He also emphasized the importance of promoting technological innovation and rethinking heavy chemical industry development to reduce environmental and resource pressures.

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